Welcome. The contents of this blog comprise my personal observations on the stock market from the perspective of using both fundamental and technical analysis by reviewing market data and stock charts based on the methodologies of William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily and his books, from Stan Weinstein's books, and most of all, through lessons learned over the years by listening to Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge" radio show on Business Talk Radio.

Criteria of stocks include first researching sectors to determine which are strong and which are weak using the ADX indicator (>40 = increased volatility); focusing in on a leading sector and buying leading stocks on a high volume
breakout (minimum 2x average) above a base; stock prices are higher than $25/share with daily average volume higher than 300K; positive and increasing PVT (indicating institutional ownership), positive and increasing RSI (indicating relative strength compared to other stocks in the market).

Please keep in mind that
I am by no means an expert, nor are my posts intended for anything other than to share my opinions of what stocks are doing for the purpose of getting feedback. Thus, please do your own research before taking action on what you read here. I will be adding posts on topics of interest as I learn about them.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Market distribution day. Bigtime distribution.

I must say that today was a disaster of a day (modestly calling today a DISTRIBUTION DAY) for the stock market.

The DOW was down, -166.75 points (-1.46%) to $11,215.51;
The NASDAQ was down, -53.51 points (-2.32%) to $2,251.46;
The S&P was down, -23.39 points (-1.82%) to $1,261.52.

Volume on these moves didn't seem so impressive which suggests to me that the move, although a disaster, didn't have much conviction which means they could go either way tomorrow.

What shocked me is how many good and strong stocks were down. Today the bears took pretty much EVERYTHING down and they were merciless at it. I could probably say every fundamentally sound stock I spoke about yesterday was down and it was down BIG. I was even stopped out of my leading gold (GG) position which surprised me because gold is supposed to weather storms like this (although gold stocks do tend to move with the market.)

Anyway, in the morning, I opened up buy positions in CELG and DNA as I said I would yesterday. The stocks moved up a bit, and then traded sideways in a channel for the rest of the day. For me, even though I made literally only $1.02 (yes, I only made a dollar and two cents net profit on these today), I was happy that they held up in such a murderous market. I'm not kidding, today looked like many stocks got slaughtered.

I can only wait until this bear market has passed because it seems as if no sound trading decision seems to work. The shorts keep bouncing when they shouldn't, the longs keep crashing (or shall I say, thrashing) down when they should be breaking out, and nothing seems to be doing (for long) what I think it will do. The headwinds blowing all of these stocks is stronger than I've ever seen them. Let's just hope that I keep my exposure light enough not to be affected any more than I already have been when the crashing continues.

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